PEW rapport – 742 “eksperter” i survey om internettet 2020: et frit globalt net for alle eller politisk og kommerciel kontrol?

Undersøgelsens deltagere er blevet bedt om at tage stilling til og diskutere 7 forudsigelser for fremtidens internet:

• A global, low-cost network thrives
• English displaces other languages
• Autonomous technology is a problem
• Transparency builds a better world, even at the expense of privacy
• Virtual reality is a drain for some
• The internet opens worldwide access to success
• Some Luddites/Refuseniks will commit terror acts.

PEW rapporter er ofte underholdende og interessant læsestof.
Det gælder også den foreliggende 104 sider lange rapport som kan downloades i PDF format. Rapporten er en opfølger på en tilsvarende fra 2004, men selvom antallet af deltagere denne gang er lavere er det mit indtryk at sammensætningen denne gang er bredere.
Et par highlights (valgt blandt mange):

The deployment of a global network: A majority of respondents agreed with a scenario which posited that a global, low-cost network will be thriving in 2020 and will be available to most people around the world at low cost. And they agreed that a tech-abetted “œflattening” of the world will open up opportunities for success for many people who will compete globally.
Still, a vocal and sizeable minority of respondents say they are unsure that the policy climate will be favorable for such internet expansion. The center of the resistance, they say, will be in the businesses anxious to preserve their current advantages and in policy circles where control over information and communication is a central value. In addition, a significant number of these dissenters argued that the world will not flatten enough to wipe away persistent social inequities.

Luddites, technological “œrefuseniks,” and violence: Most respondents agreed that there will people who will remain unconnected to the network because of their economic circumstances and others who think a class of technology refuseniks will emerge by 2020. They will form their own cultural group that lives apart from “œmodern” society and some will commit acts of violence in protest to technology.
But many respondents argue that violence arising from conflicts over religion, economics, and politics, will be more prevalent.

Der er nærmere info om de 742 undersøgelsesdeltagere I rapporten.
Undersøgelsens resultater inkorporeres iøvrigt – i lighed resultaterne fra 2004 undersøgelsen – i Janna Quitney Anderson interessante database “Imagining the Internet“.
Mest interessant er muligvis supplerende skriftlige kommentarer fra undersøgelsens deltagere?
Se også: Experts believe the future will be like Sci-Fi movies, Internet’s future in 2020 debated, Mi final prediction mv.